Today, voters in Makerfield go to the polls in what is, by any honest measure, one of the most consequential by-elections of this Parliament. Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon are the clear front runners. Politics UK’s final forecast, published on the eve of polling day, put Labour on 46.3 per cent to Reform’s 39.4 per cent, with Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain splitting the right on 7.2 per cent. Their aggregated betting markets implied roughly an 80 per cent chance of a Burnham win. Nothing in an election is decided until the votes are counted, but Burnham goes into today as the clear favourite.
What has struck me most about this campaign is not the polling. It is what this contest has done to Labour itself. Something has been awakened that has been absent for some time: the party kicked its campaigning machine into action and threw, figuratively speaking, the kitchen sink at it.
Hundreds upon hundreds of volunteers travelled up and down from across the country to knock doors for Burnham, joined by ministers, MPs and party staff who made the journey north. Burnham himself has run a thoroughly professional campaign, one built squarely around his own personal brand rather than the national party’s. Whatever you think of the man or his politics, it has been a serious, disciplined operation, and it shows in the polling.
My colleague Jamie Strudwick published a piece this morning setting out his frustration with tactical voting: that it preys on the fears of minority groups and backs us into a corner, asking us to vote for parties we may not believe in simply to keep something worse out. You can read his argument in full here.
I understand where that frustration comes from, and from an LGBTQ+ perspective, I understand it deeply. Andy Burnham is met with a huge amount of reservation, and his record gives plenty of grounds for reasonable doubt. But even if your heart is not in voting Labour today, I would argue that this by-election carries a symbolic weight beyond Makerfield itself. It will help determine whether Reform enters the second half of this Parliament emboldened, or whether it is checked. That is not a small thing, and it is worth weighing carefully against any discomfort about who is asking for your vote.
To anyone considering a protest vote for another party on the left, I would say this: our job demanding better from Labour is only finished when the party eventually leaves power, whenever that day comes. Until then, the pressure has to be kept up, from inside the party and from outside it. Neither approach works on its own.
I don’t believe it is necessary or appropriate for me to tell you how to vote. This is simply where my own thoughts have landed.
Publication does not imply endorsement. The views expressed are solely those of the contributor.
Full list of candidates in the Makerfield by-election:
- Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats)
- Count Binface (Count Binface Party)
- Andy Burnham (Labour Co-op)
- Dan Clarke (Libertarian)
- John Dyer (Independent)
- Ed Gemmell (Climate)
- Paul Gould (Independent)
- Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party)
- Robert Kenyon (Reform UK)
- Robert Pownall (Independent)
- Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain)
- Sarah Wakefield (Green Party)
- Peter Ward (Rejoin EU)
- Michael Winstanly (Conservative)
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